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When will a diesel be available for my aircraft? |
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News, facts, and comments on the coming revolution for piston-engine aircraft.News of December 15, 2007The progression of aero diesel production and availability will coincide with a mutation of the world market of piston-engined airplanes.In 2002, there were may be 50 various aero diesel prototypes flying in the world. Today, I guestimate that around 1,500 diesels fly in the world. A majority of them are Diamond/Thielert. By late 2008, I foresee at least 2,000. Then the growth will accelerate. But at the same time the market of piston-engined airplanes is in full mutation: From a predominantly US market, big, old (30-year old planes, 45-year old pilots flying in average 60 h/year), monolithic, and private, it is becoming a worldwide multiplication of small, fast growing market niches, of professionals flying intensively, including but not limited to more and more flying academies to fill the fast growing shortage of new airliner pilots. And while the US market will shrink but keep on burning AvGas, the overseas niches will be growing with diesel and JetA. These niches won't be in mainland Europe, but will be local phenomena: Flight academies in India, China, Middle-East, etc.; mini-commuters in archipelagos including the British Isles, Azores, Maldives, Caribbean’s, Pacific islands, Cape Verde or Baltic Islands; professionals in Siberia; Brazil; Mexico; Australia; Africa beginning with Southern Africa; mountainous areas such as Alaska, North American Northwest, Andes,... also missions will specialize: mini air cargo; traffic control, law enforcement, medical rescue, surveying and aerial photography... Then, as diesels become mass produced, around 2015-2020 aero diesel airplanes will invade what will be left of the US market. Andre Teissier-duCros, Publisher posted by Deena at 8:54 PM |
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